Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Contracts to $495, Signaling Weakened Bullish Sentiment
The idea that a pro-crypto President would ignite a sustained market rally is losing traction, as macroeconomic forces regain control over Bitcoin’s price movement.
Following Donald Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory, Bitcoin saw a surge in optimism. However, that momentum has now faded, as reflected in the declining spread between CME bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts.
The gap between “continuous” next-month and front-month BTC futures has tightened to $495—the lowest since Nov. 5—after peaking at $1,705 on Dec. 17, according to TradingView data. This complete reversal of the post-election rally highlights weakening bullish sentiment.
“The narrowing spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures suggests that traders are moderating their expectations for further price appreciation,” said Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, in a statement to CoinDesk.
The unwinding of the so-called “Trump bump” signals that the market is once again prioritizing broader economic factors over political developments.
“We’ve seen a sharp repricing in the front contract basis since early March, which indicates that the market has fully absorbed the impact of Trump’s election and is now responding to other macroeconomic variables,” Erdösi added.
This shift in sentiment is evident in market performance. Since early February, Bitcoin has dropped 20%, while the Nasdaq—Wall Street’s tech-heavy index—has fallen 8%. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, new tariff policies introduced by Trump, and concerns about inflation and economic growth have all weighed on investor sentiment.
Further contributing to the decline was the market’s disappointment over Trump’s Strategic Digital Asset Reserve plan. Last week, the President signed an executive order creating the reserve, which will hold BTC seized through legal enforcement actions.
“The announcement regarding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was not what the market expected. Many assumed it would involve fresh Bitcoin purchases, but instead, the government simply committed to retaining confiscated BTC. While this is a long-term positive, it led to a sharp short-term sell-off,” Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics, told CoinDesk.
Futures Market Maintains Contango Structure
Despite the compression of the CME Bitcoin futures spread, the broader market structure remains in contango, where longer-dated futures continue to trade at a premium to near-term contracts. This is a typical pattern in futures markets driven by factors such as financing costs, storage fees, and expectations of future price appreciation.
“Perpetual funding rates are still positive, and the futures curve remains in contango, indicating that the recent downturn is being driven more by unleveraged spot selling rather than a widespread shift in market sentiment,” Erdösi explained.
As Bitcoin continues to react to macroeconomic shifts, traders will be closely watching for fresh catalysts that could determine the market’s next move.
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