U.S.–Iran Deal Boosts Equities, Pressures Oil, While Crypto Remains Cautious

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The weekend peace agreement delivered the kind of macro catalyst global markets had been anticipating, though crypto traders have become increasingly skeptical of such headlines.

The U.S.–Iran deal announced over the weekend acted as a broad risk-on trigger across global assets.

Oil dropped more than 4% after reports that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, while copper prices climbed. Equity markets surged, with MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index rising 3% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high.

Crypto, however, reacted more cautiously. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) was largely flat since midnight UTC, though it remained up 2.4% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin hovered below $66,000, showing little movement since the start of the day after gaining about 3.4% over the weekend. Ether tracked a similar path. The strongest relative gains came from smaller altcoins, with the CoinDesk 80 Index adding about 1.5%.

Market participants in crypto appear increasingly reluctant to price in geopolitical relief rallies, having been burned by similar setups before. A ceasefire in April quickly collapsed, and another truce was broken by U.S. strikes in early June—both times erasing earlier gains. As a result, traders are hesitant to fully trust the latest agreement ahead of formal signing later in the week.

While price action has stabilized following the early June selloff, sentiment within on-chain and flow data remains divided. Some valuation models suggest selling pressure has largely exhausted, while capital flow metrics indicate that strong demand has yet to return. Both interpretations can coexist in the current environment.

At the same time, crypto is facing competition for risk capital. SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO on Friday—the largest in history—surged 19% on its first day, with ARK Invest, led by longtime Bitcoin advocate Cathie Wood, among the major buyers.

Meanwhile, upcoming listings from OpenAI and Anthropic highlight how the dominant speculative trade has shifted toward AI and equities rather than digital assets, drawing liquidity from the same pool of investors.

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Derivatives

Bitcoin derivatives positioning strengthened over the week. Open interest rose to $17.4 billion, up roughly 7% week-on-week, while the three-month annualized basis edged higher to 3.0% from 2.8%.

However, funding rates stayed weak, ranging between 0% and roughly -4% annualized across major venues, signaling limited appetite for leveraged long positioning in perpetual futures.

The combination of rising open interest and firmer basis suggests modest institutional participation, but subdued funding indicates a lack of aggressive directional conviction.

Options markets present a mixed picture. The 24-hour put/call skew leaned toward puts at roughly 25/75, but volatility indicators do not show broad stress. Deribit’s DVOL index slipped to 39, down 3.4% on the day and near multi-year lows, while the implied volatility term structure remains in contango rather than backwardation. This reflects selective downside hedging rather than widespread fear.

Coinglass data recorded $343 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with longs accounting for 27% and shorts 73%. Bitcoin and Ethereum led liquidation totals at $136 million and $60 million respectively.

Binance liquidation maps highlight $66,100 as a key level to watch if prices move higher.

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Token Talk

Decentralized AI-related tokens surged after the U.S. government instructed Anthropic to restrict foreign access to its most advanced models.

Venice (VVV) rose about 14% to $16.37, with trading volume jumping nearly 200% to around $130 million, according to CoinGecko. Morpheus (MOR) gained roughly 21% to $2.28.

Anthropic said the Commerce Department directed it to limit access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for foreign nationals under export-control rules. The company temporarily disabled both models globally while keeping others active, calling it a narrow compliance issue and stating it is working to resolve the misunderstanding.

Supporters of decentralized AI quickly framed the move as validation of their narrative. Venice founder Erik Voorhees argued it reinforced the need for censorship-resistant systems, while Morpheus supporters thanked Anthropic’s CEO for what they described as “free publicity.”

Venice provides access to open-source models via its VVV token, while Morpheus incentivizes computing and development contributions through MOR rewards.

However, much of the rally appeared narrative-driven rather than fundamentals-based. MOR’s 21% gain occurred on less than $300,000 in volume, and both projects rely on open-source models that are generally less capable than Anthropic’s restricted systems.

The price action was driven primarily by the censorship-resistance narrative rather than underlying technological strength.

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