Bitcoin and crypto prices edge higher as prospects of a US-Iran peace deal improve

Crypto markets edged higher Monday as optimism grew around a potential U.S.-Iran agreement, with Iranian officials arriving in Doha for fresh negotiations.

Bitcoin rose 1.6% over the past 24 hours to trade near $77,500, while ether gained 1.4%. The broader CoinDesk 20 index advanced about 1.56%, reflecting a modest uptick across digital assets.

Sentiment was buoyed by activity on prediction markets, where traders increasingly priced in the likelihood of a near-term deal. On Polymarket, the probability of a permanent agreement being reached this month climbed to 37%, up sharply from around 14% just days earlier. Odds rise further over time, with markets implying a 46% chance by early June and 72% by the end of July. Trading volume tied to the outcome has reached roughly $178 million.

The renewed optimism follows comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said over the weekend that a framework agreement had been reached but remained subject to final approval. Meanwhile, senior Iranian officials—including parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and central bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati—arrived in Doha for talks, according to reports.

Discussions are expected to center on key geopolitical flashpoints, including the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Pakistan and Qatar are acting as mediators in the negotiations. Iranian officials have described the current phase as a preliminary memorandum of understanding, with more comprehensive talks likely to follow over the next one to two months.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, has been largely disrupted since late February following military action involving the U.S. and Israel, although some shipping activity has resumed in recent days.

In traditional markets, crude oil prices dropped 5.4% to around $91.30 per barrel, while gold climbed 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, with the Dollar Index slipping about 0.3%.

Despite the improving outlook, Trump struck a cautious tone, emphasizing that any agreement must be comprehensive. He warned that failure to finalize a deal could lead to renewed escalation, potentially resulting in a more intense conflict.