BTC approaches $68K while gold rallies on mounting tensions between the U.S. and Iran

Geopolitical strains and a more defensive mood in U.S. equities are keeping investors cautious, with some analysts warning that markets may need to revisit 2024 lows before a more durable recovery can take hold.

Crypto assets ticked higher during Asia’s Friday session, as bitcoin pushed back toward $68,000 following a volatile stretch that unsettled broader risk markets.

The advance extended across major tokens. XRP, Solana’s SOL, DOGE and Cardano’s ADA gained as much as 2%, while ether lagged slightly, slipping and hovering just under $2,000. Traders appear to be treating that threshold as critical support rather than a breakout milestone.

The latest uptick felt more like a relief bounce than the start of a fresh uptrend. After weeks of sharp, two-way price action, the market has been moving in bursts — rallies draw in dip buyers, only for selling to reappear near levels where sidelined or trapped investors can exit with smaller losses.

Still, this week’s rebounds have shown marginal improvement in resilience, suggesting that forced selling pressure may be easing, even if strong conviction buying has yet to return in force.

Macro uncertainty and geopolitical risk continue to cloud sentiment. Gold steadied near $5,000 an ounce after back-to-back gains, reflecting investor caution amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday that negotiations over a potential nuclear agreement with Iran would be given 10 to 15 days, while reports indicated an increased U.S. military presence in the region. The backdrop has supported demand for traditional safe havens and limited the upside for higher-beta assets.

Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures, said traders are reassessing the outlook after the latest Federal Reserve minutes revealed a firmer tone, even if further rate hikes are not the primary scenario.

“The key takeaway from the latest Fed minutes is not that hikes are imminent, but that policymakers have clearly left the option open if inflation fails to cool,” Cai said. “That effectively raises the bar for near-term rate cuts.”

The shift has underpinned the dollar and marginally tightened financial conditions, she noted, contributing to softer equity performance and renewed interest in cash-like assets and short-duration Treasuries.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, maintained a cautious outlook. Given prior price dynamics and the more guarded stance in U.S. stocks, he said the likelihood of a retest of local lows — levels last seen in the latter half of 2024 — has increased.

Regarding ether, Kuptsikevich observed that the token remains supported by a long-term trendline dating back to 2020, intersecting around the $2,000 zone. However, a confirmed breakdown would likely require a decisive drop below recent troughs near $1,500.

On-chain indicators also suggest potential headwinds. According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin inflows from large holders to Binance have reached record highs, a pattern that can precede increased spot selling pressure.

Research firm K33 has likened the current setup to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, which ultimately transitioned into a prolonged consolidation phase.

For now, the crypto market appears capable of generating rebounds, but struggles to transform them into sustained trends. Until spot demand decisively outweighs supply clustered near key psychological levels, rallies may remain vulnerable to renewed selling.

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