Gold nears $5,000, silver climbs toward $100, while bitcoin struggles to move

Gold and silver pushed higher on Thursday, edging toward key price milestones, while bitcoin (BTC $88,558) remained largely flat near $90,000, trading around $89,930.

Spot gold rose about 2.5% to $4,950 per ounce, and silver jumped more than 6% to just under $99. The moves cap a strong month for precious metals, with gold up more than 7% and silver surging nearly 30%, outpacing most major asset classes.

Prediction markets indicate traders see current levels as stepping stones rather than ceilings. On Polymarket, contracts asking which asset—gold or ethereum—will reach $5,000 first assign gold a 97% implied probability, with ETH still below $3,000. Month-end markets also cluster around gold finishing at or above $5,000 by the end of January, while silver markets show strong positioning for a move to $100 and high odds for prices above $85.

Analysts are increasingly bullish. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900. Polymarket traders expect bitcoin to remain range-bound near $85,000 for the month.

Volatility trends help explain the dynamics. Silver’s 30-day realized volatility has jumped into the high 60s, reflecting strong momentum, while gold’s volatility remains in the low 20s, signaling a steadier, orderly repricing. Bitcoin’s volatility has compressed into the mid-30s even as prices hover near recent highs, underscoring a shift in where markets are expressing macro uncertainty.

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