Bitcoin faces roughly a 30% chance of dropping under $80,000 by the end of June, according to options metrics.

Bitcoin slipped below $91,000 amid renewed tariff concerns from President Donald Trump, with options market data pointing to a significant risk of further declines.

On Derive.xyz, a decentralized platform for on-chain options, perpetuals, and structured products, traders see a roughly 30% probability of bitcoin falling below $80,000 by the end of June. Similar positioning is visible on Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange.

“Options markets show a clear downside skew, with a 30% chance BTC falls below $80K by June 26, versus a 19% chance it rises above $120K,” said Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.

Options — contracts that allow bets on BTC’s future price — show heavy interest in puts, which pay out if prices drop below set levels. The concentration of open interest between $75,000 and $80,000 indicates expectations of a mid-$70,000 drawdown.

A drop below $80,000 would mark the lowest levels since April 2025, when bitcoin fell to $75,000 amid sweeping U.S. tariffs that roiled global markets. Geopolitical tensions have resurfaced after Trump threatened a 10% levy on imports from 10 European nations over opposition to his Greenland acquisition plan, sending bitcoin down from $95,000 to $91,000.

“Rising U.S.-Europe tensions — particularly around Greenland — increase the risk of higher volatility, which is not fully reflected in spot prices,” Dawson said.

Negative skew in the options market underscores near-term downside fears, reflecting a market bracing for potential turbulence in the months ahead.