Why Copper, Gold and Bitcoin Are a Key Macro Indicator

Rising Copper-to-Gold Ratio Signals a Potential Turning Point for Bitcoin

The copper-to-gold ratio is breaking higher, a move that has historically coincided with important inflection points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Closely watched as a barometer of economic momentum and investor risk appetite, the ratio has shown a consistent relationship with Bitcoin (BTC $91,997), according to analyst SuperBitcoinBro.

Copper is strongly linked to industrial activity and typically performs well during periods of economic expansion. Gold, by contrast, is viewed as a defensive asset that tends to outperform when growth slows and uncertainty rises. A rising ratio between the two therefore signals a risk-on environment, while a falling ratio reflects growing risk aversion.

In previous cycles, major peaks in the copper-to-gold ratio — notably in 2013, 2017 and 2021 — have aligned with Bitcoin’s cycle highs, periods marked by robust global growth expectations and elevated speculative activity. Equally important, however, is what happens after extended declines. Historically, reversals in the ratio have often preceded strong Bitcoin rallies, particularly when they coincide with Bitcoin halving cycles.

Bitcoin halvings, which cut miner rewards in half roughly every four years, reduce new supply and have historically acted as catalysts for longer-term bull markets. During the fourth halving in April 2024, the copper-to-gold ratio was still falling. That trend has since reversed, with the ratio rebounding to around 0.00136 after bottoming near 0.00116 in October.

The shift comes as copper prices push above $6 per pound to record highs, while gold trades near $4,455 per ounce, close to its own peak. Over the past three months, copper has gained about 18%, with gold up roughly 14%.

If copper’s strength reflects improving global growth expectations rather than supply constraints alone, the resulting risk-on signal could provide a supportive macro backdrop for a Bitcoin rally in 2026.