XRP stages a bounce, but $2 continues to act as resistance even as exchange balances drop to their lowest in eight years.

XRP traded higher as the amount of tokens held on exchanges fell to its lowest level since 2018, underscoring a tightening supply backdrop even as price continues to struggle beneath a heavy resistance zone just below $2.

The token climbed to $1.87, but upside momentum slowed near the $1.88–$2.00 band — an area that has repeatedly halted recoveries and remains the market’s primary hurdle.

Market context

Exchange balances have re-emerged as a key metric for gauging positioning. XRP supply held on trading platforms has declined to around 1.6 billion tokens, a drop of roughly 57% since October, signaling a steady shift into longer-term storage and custody rather than immediate sale availability.

This contraction in exchange supply is occurring amid selective positioning across major cryptocurrencies. Institutional players have increasingly favored structured and regulated avenues for exposure, while spot trading has remained uneven. That dynamic has helped support longer-term demand for assets like XRP, even as near-term price action remains fragile.

For XRP, shrinking exchange inventories can intensify price moves once demand improves. However, reduced supply alone has not been enough to overcome entrenched technical resistance, particularly near the $2 level where selling pressure has consistently surfaced.

Technical outlook

XRP rose about 1.7% from $1.84 to $1.87, forming higher lows and trading within a narrow $0.05 range, or roughly 2.5% intraday volatility. Trading activity increased as prices moved higher, with volume reaching approximately 32 million tokens — around 50% above average — indicating stronger participation behind the advance.

Despite that, the rally stalled as XRP approached $1.88. That level aligns with a broader resistance zone ahead of the psychological $2 mark and has repeatedly rejected upside attempts. Recent failures to hold above $2 have reinforced the area as a supply zone where sellers remain active.

Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. Some signals suggest bullish divergence, with momentum improving even as price remains capped, but confirmation requires a sustained break above resistance. On the downside, structure remains constructive as long as XRP holds above the $1.82–$1.83 base, with $1.77 standing out as the next meaningful support area.

Price action highlights

XRP advanced from $1.84 to $1.87, printing a steady series of higher lows
Volume expanded into the move, peaking near 32 million tokens, roughly 50% above average
Price stalled near $1.88 resistance, keeping the broader $1.77–$2.00 range intact
Late-session trading consolidated near $1.873, pointing to balance rather than a breakout

What it means for traders

XRP remains caught between a tightening supply backdrop and a clearly defined resistance ceiling.

Upside scenario: A sustained move above $1.88 would open a path toward $1.95, with $2.00 as the key breakout level. A clean reclaim of $2 would likely attract momentum buyers and pressure sellers who have been defending that zone.
Downside risk: Failure to hold the $1.82–$1.83 area would shift attention back to $1.77. A break below that level could expose deeper support, though the immediate battleground remains between $1.77 and $1.88.

For now, shrinking exchange supply continues to support the longer-term case, but the market still needs a decisive break above the $1.88–$2.00 zone before the bullish narrative can fully take hold.