After falling 30% from its high, Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum. Here’s why.

Bitcoin’s October flash crash exposed the fragility of what had been one of its most widely anticipated bull runs — and signaled a shift in how the cryptocurrency is being priced by markets.

Entering 2025, expectations for bitcoin were sky-high, with some industry projections calling for year-end levels between $180,000 and $200,000. The rally did turn historic, but not in the way many had envisioned.

Bitcoin surged to a record above $126,200 on Oct. 6, reaching its peak well ahead of most forecasts. The momentum unraveled just four days later, when a sudden flash crash jolted markets and underscored the volatility that continues to define digital-asset trading.

Since the October high, bitcoin has slid roughly 30% and now trades more than 50% below many of the bullish targets set for 2025. Rather than accelerating higher, the cryptocurrency is down about 6% for the year and has spent much of the past two months range-bound between $83,000 and $96,000, according to TradingView.

The abrupt selloff caught traders off guard, wiping out months of leveraged bullish positioning within minutes. Still, the move did not amount to a structural breakdown, said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. Instead, he characterized it as a market reset reflecting bitcoin’s deeper entanglement with macro forces.

“Bitcoin was repriced as a risk asset, not a revolution,” Greenspan said.

“The October 10 flash crash wasn’t a failure,” he added. “It was a liquidity event driven by macro stress, trade-war concerns and crowded positioning, revealing how front-loaded the cycle had become.”

The sudden change in trading behavior has complicated forecasting and forced even some of the crypto sector’s most prominent analysts to reassess their expectations.