This year, bitcoin proved the pitfalls of relying on price predictions.

As 2025 winds down, few events shook the crypto market more than the Oct. 10 “flash crash,” when bitcoin (BTC $87,784.51) plunged nearly $12,000 — almost 10% — within minutes. The sudden drop triggered over $19 billion in liquidations in just 24 hours, sparked a widely circulated “cascade warning” among traders, and wiped roughly $500 billion from total crypto market capitalization.

The crash set the stage for a prolonged decline, leaving bitcoin more than 30% below the $126,223 peak it had reached just six days earlier. The drop is expected to mark bitcoin’s first full-year loss since the 2022 crypto winter.

The year started with optimism, as forecasts ranged from cautious estimates to near-fantasy predictions. But after the flash crash, most projections quickly proved inaccurate. Some long-term predictions were astronomical: Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer projected $1 million by 2038, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggested $700,000 if institutional adoption scaled.

Even 2025-specific predictions were bold. Samson Mow, CEO of bitcoin tech firm Jan3, anticipated a “violent” rise to $1 million, while Blockstream CEO Adam Back cited ETF inflows, institutional buying, and limited supply as reasons BTC could hit $500,000–$1 million. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya also forecast $500,000 by October.

More conservative targets still exceeded bitcoin’s all-time high. JPMorgan analysts raised their pre-crash October forecast to $165,000, citing the “debasement trade.” Post-crash, Michael Saylor of Strategy (MSTR) projected $150,000 by year-end, while the company purchased an additional $1 billion of BTC in December, bringing total holdings to 671,268.

Throughout the year, bullish predictions flooded in: VanEck targeted $180,000 for Q1, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called for $200,000, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintained a $200,000–$250,000 range well into October. Few forecasters adjusted downward — Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz revised his $500,000 forecast to $120,000–$125,000, and Standard Chartered cut its target to $100,000.

The takeaway from 2025 is clear: bitcoin humbles everyone. It defies models, ignores charts, and leaves even the boldest predictions wrong. As the year closes, the industry is left with charts to redraw, narratives to rewrite, and one truth: in crypto, predictions are easy, but being right is rare.