According to Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, 2026 could be underwhelming while Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact.

Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, remains a long-term Bitcoin bull but is cautious about the year ahead.

Recently, some prominent voices have questioned Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood argue that with ETFs, institutional adoption, and regulatory acceptance, Bitcoin has become part of the mainstream financial system and may no longer follow its historic boom-and-bust rhythm.

The four-year cycle, tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, has historically driven price surges. Each halving cuts the mining reward by 50%, creating a supply shock that often triggers a major rally. After these peaks, Bitcoin has typically experienced declines of around 80% before gradually climbing toward the next halving.

Looking at past cycles—2012, 2016, and 2020—the pattern has largely held. The 2024 halving saw Bitcoin peak at $125,000 in October 2025, followed by the current bear market.

Timmer, an early advocate for Bitcoin in traditional finance, sees the cycle still intact. “If we line up all the bull markets, the October high of $125,000 after 145 weeks of rallying fits pretty well with expectations,” he said.

As for what’s next, Timmer predicts a period of consolidation. Historically, bear markets after a halving last about a year. “My sense is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ for Bitcoin,” he said, adding that support levels are likely around $65,000-$75,000.

About The Author

ctleditor

See author's posts