Fidelity director flips bearish, flags risk of year-long downturn for crypto

Fidelity’s global macro director, Jurien Timmer, says the latest bitcoin bull market has likely run its course, while emphasizing the ongoing strength of gold’s rally.

Timmer, a long-time proponent of bitcoin, has turned more cautious on the cryptocurrency, arguing that price action is once again aligning with its familiar four-year cycle. From both a historical and time-based standpoint, he believes the current phase closely resembles prior market cycles.

The October peak near $125,000 — reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative gains — fits squarely within that pattern, Timmer said. Bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as crypto winters, have historically lasted around a year, leading him to view 2026 as a potential pause following the most recent halving-driven advance.

“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year halving phase, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote on X. “If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000.”

Timmer contrasted bitcoin’s recent weakness with gold’s strong performance in 2025 and said he does not expect a near-term mean reversion between the two assets.

Gold remains firmly in a bull market, up roughly 65% year to date and outperforming growth in the global money supply, Timmer noted. He added that gold has held on to most of its gains during recent pullbacks, a trait he views as typical of a sustained bull market.

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