Bitcoin slipped overnight, dragging the broader crypto market lower as traders remained cautious amid a lack of clear market catalysts. BTC traded at $88,248.23, down 1.5% from early Wednesday highs, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index fell 1.6%, with all constituent tokens in negative territory.
The latest sell-off extends a downtrend that began in early October, following bitcoin’s failure to break above $94,700 last week. For a meaningful recovery, BTC would need to reclaim $95,000 and ideally push toward $98,000, though year-end catalysts remain scarce. Technical indicators point to the potential for a short-term relief rally, as the average crypto relative strength index (RSI) sits at 38.49, signaling oversold conditions.
Derivatives and market positioning
BTC’s 30-day implied volatility, measured by Volmex’s BVIV, remains below an annualized 50%, reflecting calm ahead of Thursday’s U.S. inflation report and Friday’s Bank of Japan rate decision. Bitcoin’s 90-day historical volatility is now comparable to major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, highlighting market maturation.
Long positions on Bitfinex have surged to their highest levels since February, while futures open interest across most tokens, including BTC and ether (ETH $2,973.28), has declined over 24 hours. Exceptions include BCH, UNI, and NEAR, which saw moderate increases in open interest. On Deribit, put writing at bitcoin’s $85,000 strike and call writing at $95,000 and $100,000 strikes suggest a broad range for near-term trading. Block trades included BTC straddles, risk reversals, and ETH call calendar spreads. Overall, BTC and ETH puts remain pricier than calls, pointing to persistent downside concerns and call overwriting.
Altcoins
Altcoins continued to lag behind bitcoin, pushing BTC dominance higher to 58.7% from 57.8% on Nov. 26. ASTER and TAO were the worst performers among the top 100, down 6.5% and 6.1% since midnight UTC. ASTER’s decline extends a bearish trend exceeding 20% since Monday’s weekly open, reflecting waning hype around BNB Chain derivatives exchanges.
Some bullish exceptions included Monero (XMR $438.72), up 0.2%, and Cardano’s privacy token NIGHT, which rose over 5% in European morning trading. The “altcoin season” indicator remains at 19/100, highlighting the market’s ongoing focus on bitcoin since October’s liquidation-driven downturn.
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