Could Bitcoin Finally See Its Green Light Moment?

Bitcoin remains range-bound, frustrating traders with directionless price action—but several indicators suggest a potential bullish shift may be on the horizon.

Fed Moves, BTC Holds

The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut, accompanied by supposedly hawkish guidance, had little impact on Bitcoin, which is trading near $90,244. The cryptocurrency continues to move within a countertrend mini-rising channel embedded in the broader downtrend that has persisted since its all-time highs.

For technical traders, the scenario is straightforward: a break above the main bearish trendline could signal the end of the long-term downtrend, while a drop below the ascending mini-channel would reinforce bearish momentum and potentially trigger deeper losses.

Indicators Favor Bulls

Momentum indicators are leaning bullish. Bitcoin’s MACD histogram (50,100,9) is approaching a crossover above zero—a classic signal of renewed upward momentum. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has weakened post-Fed, hitting 98.13 on Thursday—the lowest since mid-October—with its MACD turning negative, signaling bearish momentum for the greenback. A weaker dollar historically supports risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Tech equities provide additional support: the Nasdaq has stabilized after November’s slump, trading above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, which typically bodes well for crypto markets. Sellers in Bitcoin appear fatigued, as prices remain steady despite setbacks in U.S. Senate crypto legislation.

Key Levels Ahead

If BTC breaks out, resistance between $97,000 and $108,000—highlighted by the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud—will come into focus. ETF flows, however, remain muted, with cumulative net inflows since late November totaling only $219 million, far below the billions in outflows earlier this year.

Bitcoin’s asymmetric correlation with the Nasdaq is also notable: it tends to fall sharply during tech sell-offs but rises modestly on rallies, leaving upside potential somewhat capped.

Bear Case Remains

While bullish signals are building, a breakdown below the mini ascending channel could expose support around $80,000, keeping caution on the table. For now, Bitcoin sits at a technical crossroads: poised for a breakout if momentum holds, yet still vulnerable if sellers regain control.