How Trump’s Security Strategy Could Influence Bitcoin, Gold, and Bond Yields

Trump’s National Security Strategy Signals Higher Yields, Potential Boost for Gold and Bitcoin

The White House’s newly released National Security Strategy reads less like a traditional diplomatic plan and more like a push for global fiscal expansion—a development likely to rattle crypto markets accustomed to hopes of swift interest rate cuts.

Signed by President Donald Trump, the strategy emphasizes an “America First” agenda, calling for NATO allies to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, up from the long-standing 2%. Japan and South Korea are also expected to significantly raise their military budgets. The strategy commits to a stronger U.S. military presence in the Western Pacific, urging Taiwan and Australia to invest more in defense.

Financing these massive expenditures would likely require more government borrowing, driving up bond yields, capital costs, and inflation, while limiting central banks’ ability to cut rates. The strategy also signals the end of the “era of mass migration,” suggesting slower labor inflows and potentially sticky wages.

For investors, these trends favor inflation hedges and safe-haven assets. Gold has surged 60% this year, while Bitcoin—a so-called “digital gold”—has struggled, down nearly 5% year-to-date.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week to 3.5%, but with fiscal expansion on the horizon, large rate reductions may be difficult.