Bitcoin traders are positioning for a possible sub-$80,000 start to 2026, according to Derive co-founder Nick Forster.
Market participants are increasingly taking defensive bets, reflecting expectations of further downside in BTC. “Skew’s sharp step lower shows traders stacking puts, particularly for the Dec. 26 expiry, where open interest is concentrated at the $84K and $80K strikes,” Forster said. “This setup points to a meaningful probability of bitcoin dipping below $80K at the start of the new year.”
Bitcoin was trading near $87,000 at the time of writing, down roughly 30% from its record high above $126,000 on Oct. 8, per CoinDesk data.
Forster cautioned that the current downtrend may not be over. “Short-dated volatility is now higher than long-dated BTC volatility, signaling the market anticipates significant swings heading into the new year,” he said, highlighting expectations for a turbulent December.
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