Benchmark Affirms Strategy as Top Bitcoin Proxy, Rejects Negative Outlook

Benchmark Says Strategy Remains Strongest Bitcoin Proxy, Dismissing Solvency Concerns

Wall Street broker Benchmark is pushing back against fears over bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), describing the stock as the “strongest asymmetric bet on bitcoin.”

In a report published Monday, analyst Mark Palmer noted that recent bitcoin price declines have triggered recurring solvency concerns that he considers overblown. He emphasized that Strategy’s balance sheet is designed to maximize bitcoin leverage, holding roughly 649,870 BTC (about $55.8 billion) alongside $8.2 billion in ultra-low-cost convertibles and $7.6 billion in perpetual preferreds. These obligations, Palmer said, are manageable, and the company’s structure is far more robust than critics suggest.

Benchmark highlighted the advantage of perpetual preferreds—permanent capital with no refinancing cliff—a feature unmatched by other digital-asset treasury firms. Regarding distress scenarios, the broker noted bitcoin would need to fall below $12,700 and remain there—an 86% drop—for Strategy to face solvency risk, which it sees as extremely unlikely in today’s institution-driven market.

Palmer reiterated his buy rating on MSTR with a $705 target, based on a 2026 bitcoin price assumption of $225,000, stating that the recent pullback does not alter his outlook. Shares were down 4.7% at $168.82, while bitcoin was down 6% to roughly $86,000 at publication time.

Amid volatility in the digital asset treasury sector, including ETF flow fluctuations and liquidity stress, Benchmark views Strategy as a standout: scalable, yield-generating, and structurally advantaged. The firm expects the company to lead a rebound as liquidity and regulatory clarity improve.

On Monday, Strategy also announced a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve, funded primarily through last week’s sale of common stock. The company plans to maintain the reserve at a level sufficient to cover at least 12 months of dividends, with potential expansion over time.