Analyst Notes Extreme Fear in Bitcoin Sentiment Gauges, Suggesting a Possible Near-Term Market Bottom

Bitcoin BTC$90,949.09 sentiment has collapsed into extreme fear territory, raising the likelihood that a tactical bottom may be forming, according to a new report from 10x Research.

The firm’s proprietary Greed & Fear Index, designed to track investor sentiment, has fallen to a historic low below 5, underscoring the depth of the market’s pessimism. Readings under 10% typically signal extreme fear, while those above 90% indicate excessive bullishness.

Adding weight to the signal, the index’s 21-day simple moving average has also dropped to 10%, a level that has repeatedly aligned with short-term market lows in previous cycles.

“Our 10x Greed & Fear Index is hovering near its lowest possible reading, and the slower-moving average has now slipped into the 10% region—a zone that has often marked tactical lows,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, in comments to CoinDesk.

Still, even extreme pessimism does not guarantee an immediate reversal. Bitcoin could continue to drift lower, though previous cycles suggest the decline may moderate as sentiment bottoms out.

“In March, the indicator hit its low before bitcoin extended its drop into April,” Thielen explained. “But the market still posted a 10% rebound right after that initial sentiment trough. With sentiment again scraping the bottom, a similar short-term bounce is a realistic possibility.”

At press time, bitcoin was changing hands near $84,800, having recovered slightly from Friday’s dip to $80,880, according to CoinDesk data. Despite the rebound attempt, BTC remains down 10% on the week and 23% for the month.