BTC Faces Potential Slide to $118K Amid Dollar Gains and Bond Caution, While MOVE Index Bolsters Bull Case

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trajectory, holding firm above a critical trendline despite a brief pause in the rally over the past 24 hours. The near-vertical trendline from lows just under $110,000 remains intact, with prices bouncing back after testing support early today.

Analysts suggest that traders who missed the initial surge could consider call spreads as a risk-efficient way to capture potential gains.

Next Moves for Bitcoin
A clear breakout above the expanding triangle’s upper boundary on the daily chart could pave the way for BTC to reach $135,000–$140,000, with that boundary having acted as resistance earlier this week. Conversely, a breach below the hourly trendline could trigger a corrective phase, with initial support around $118,000.

Macro Signals: Bulls and Bears in Play
Traditional markets provide a mix of bullish and cautionary signals for crypto:

Bullish: The MOVE index, tracking expected volatility in Treasury notes, fell below 70 on Monday, its lowest since December 2021, indicating easier conditions for risk assets.
Cautionary: The U.S. dollar index (DXY) and Treasury yields remain strong despite September’s 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. The DXY is forming a potential bullish double-bottom, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 16 basis points to 4.16%, partially offsetting the rate cut.

Goldman Sachs also warned that shocks in Japan’s bond market, driven by the new Prime Minister’s Abenomics policies, could spill over into U.S. Treasuries and other global bonds, adding uncertainty for risk assets.

Traders should monitor these indicators closely, as sustained strength in the dollar or yields could challenge Bitcoin’s rally.

Ethereum Shows Bullish Momentum
Ether (ETH) has risen 4% and formed a bull flag breakout on the weekly chart, signaling a potential continuation of its prior uptrend. A move above $5,000 could mark the next leg higher, while any sell-off leading to weekly losses would suggest bearish pressure is increasing.