Bitcoin has bounced back above $112,800 after briefly dipping under $108,800 earlier this week, lifted by a record S&P 500 close and strong Nvidia earnings. Still, on-chain data shows sellers may cap gains near $113,600, a key cost-basis level.
Resistance Ahead
According to Glassnode, BTC trades below the average entry price for both the 1-month ($115.6K) and 3-month ($113.6K) holder cohorts. These investors are under pressure, meaning any rally could face selling as traders seek to exit at breakeven.
Market Signals
Spot flows remain neutral, with futures showing a bearish tilt. BRN’s Timothy Misir noted that a break above $112.4K on strong volume could open a path toward $114K–$116K, though funding rates suggest fragile momentum.
Institutional flows offer a counterweight: bitcoin ETFs saw $81M in new inflows over the past day, while ether ETFs attracted $307M. Corporates remain active, with Metaplanet planning to raise $881M to buy $837M worth of BTC this autumn, adding to its existing 18,991 BTC holdings. Combined, ETFs, corporates, and governments are absorbing around 3,600 BTC/day, nearly 4x miner issuance.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $113.6K–$115.6K
- Support: $107K (six-month cost basis)
Glassnode warned that a sustained move below $107K could spark panic selling and accelerate downside momentum.
Outlook
Bitcoin’s rebound mirrors optimism in equities but faces stiff resistance from short-term holders. Whether institutional demand can outweigh profit-taking near $113.6K will likely determine the next leg of the trend.
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