$60,000 emerges as bitcoin floor as crypto bear market approaches turning point, Compass Point says

Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom in its current downturn, but analysts at Compass Point say a deeper slide would likely require a broader selloff in U.S. equities.

“While near-term risks remain skewed to the downside, we believe we are approaching the final stages of the crypto bear market,” Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan wrote in a note on Monday. “Meaningful further downside would likely require a U.S. equity bear market.”

In their base-case outlook, the analysts expect bitcoin to find support between $60,000 and $68,000, a range that has historically attracted buying from long-term holders. On-chain data shows strong conviction in that zone, with about 7% of bitcoin held by investors with holding periods of six months or longer acquired within that price range. Compass Point’s central scenario places a bottom near $65,000.

Bitcoin fell below $81,000 earlier this month and dropped to as low as $74,532 over the weekend. The analysts said those levels reflect the average cost basis for both bitcoin exchange-traded fund investors and the broader market. Since Jan. 15, bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $3 billion in net outflows, leaving more than half of ETF assets underwater. As a result, Compass Point warned that outflows could remain elevated, while the $81,000–$83,000 range may now act as overhead resistance.

The firm also highlighted a lack of structural support between $70,000 and $80,000, describing the range as an “air pocket.” Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was accumulated in that zone, increasing the risk of further selling pressure if prices weaken.

If bitcoin were to break below the $60,000–$68,000 support band, the next potential downside level would be near $55,000—but only under more extreme conditions. Historically, bitcoin bear markets have bottomed below the average cost basis of all holders, which currently sits around $55,000.

However, the analysts noted that breaching that level has typically required significant external shocks. During the 2022 downturn, bitcoin fell below its average cost basis only after a U.S. equity bear market combined with several high-profile crypto bankruptcies.