Will Bitcoin Hold $100K? Key Catalysts That Could Lift BTC, XRP, and SOL

Bitcoin Reclaims $103K as Liquidity Eases and Dollar Strength Fades

November 9, 2025 — Bitcoin (BTC) climbed back above $103,000 on Sunday, extending gains across the crypto market as improving U.S. liquidity conditions eased pressure on risk assets.

After several volatile weeks that saw BTC retreat sharply from record highs, the broader market — including ether (ETH $3,524), XRP ($2.52), and solana (SOL $165.68) — appears to be stabilizing. The renewed optimism is tied to a marked improvement in dollar funding dynamics, signaling that stress in the U.S. banking system is subsiding.

The key metric driving sentiment is the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) — a measure of liquidity in the short-term funding markets. The spread surged to its highest level since 2019 late last month, tightening financial conditions and sending the dollar higher while dragging bitcoin below the $100,000 mark.

That pressure has since reversed. The SOFR-EFFR spread has narrowed sharply from 0.35 to 0.05, pointing to a normalization in liquidity and a decline in funding stress. Historically, such easing supports risk-on behavior and benefits assets like bitcoin.

Additional signs of relief are visible. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) — which banks use for short-term liquidity — has fallen back to zero after peaking at a record $50 billion earlier this month, according to ING. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has stalled near 100.25, suggesting its recent rally may be losing momentum.

A weaker dollar often coincides with stronger crypto performance, as investors seek inflation hedges and alternative stores of value. As of publication, BTC traded at $103,090, up 1.6% in 24 hours, while ETH, XRP, SOL, and BNB each gained between 1.5% and 2.5%, per CoinDesk data.

Key Risks:
Analysts caution that spot bitcoin ETFs must show renewed inflows after nearly $2.8 billion in outflows over the past four weeks. Additionally, a breakout in the DXY above 100.25 could pressure bitcoin’s bullish momentum.