Will a Cardano ETF Be Greenlit This Year Amid U.S. Government Shutdown?

Cardano ETF Could Be Delayed Amid U.S. Government Shutdown

The long-awaited Cardano (ADA, $0.7830) ETF faces potential delays as the SEC operates with minimal staff during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Crypto ETF reviews are effectively on hold, raising the possibility that decisions could slip into 2026.

Although the SEC recently introduced fast-track rules for altcoin ETFs, including Cardano, the shutdown has left filings in limbo. Polymarket traders currently place a 90% probability on year-end approval, but the 10% “No” scenario may be underestimated. With a 36% chance of a month-long shutdown, even expedited approvals may not be feasible.

Under the SEC’s contingency plan, roughly 390 of 4,200 employees remain on duty, focused on emergencies and market monitoring rather than reviewing new ETF applications. While filings can still be submitted via EDGAR, no staff are available to review or process them.

If federal operations resume around late October as expected, the SEC would have only about eight working weeks before the holiday slowdown, a narrow window to clear a growing backlog of crypto ETF applications, including 89 others besides ADA.

Even with high priority, the Cardano ETF’s approval timeline remains uncertain, making delays more likely than market odds currently suggest.