Why Arthur Hayes Believes Hyperliquid’s HYPE Could Soar 126x

Hayes Models 126x Upside for Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and now chief investment officer at Maelstrom, argues that Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE could rally more than 100-fold, calling the exchange the best-positioned platform for the next wave of crypto speculation.

Hyperliquid as “Decentralized Binance”

Hyperliquid runs entirely on its own blockchain, specializing in decentralized perpetual futures. Its HYPE token powers governance, staking, and value capture from trading fees. Hayes describes the platform as a “decentralized Binance” — matching the speed of centralized exchanges but recording every function, from settlement to collateral management, transparently on-chain.

Led by founder Jeff Yan, Hyperliquid already claims about two-thirds of the decentralized perps market. Hayes argues its lean, fast-moving team outpaces larger rivals in execution and innovation.

Macro Case: Stablecoins as the New Savings

Hayes links his thesis to fiat debasement. As governments expand money supply, savers — especially those without access to traditional assets — turn to stablecoins like USDT and USDC. From there, speculation naturally flows into crypto markets.

In his view, Hyperliquid is positioned as the prime venue to capture that capital, offering a direct bridge between stablecoin savings and perpetual trading.

The Valuation Math

Maelstrom’s model projects the stablecoin market could hit $10 trillion by 2028. Applying Binance’s historical 26.4% trading-volume-to-stablecoin ratio, Hyperliquid could see $2.6 trillion in daily volume.

At 0.03% fees, that translates into roughly $258 billion in annual revenues. Discounted at 5%, Hayes arrives at a present value near $5.16 trillion. Against HYPE’s $41 billion fully diluted valuation today, the math suggests a 126x upside.

A Bold Prediction

Hayes concludes with a sweeping forecast: Hyperliquid could one day surpass Binance as the largest crypto exchange, with Jeff Yan joining the ranks of the industry’s wealthiest founders.

The model rests on aggressive assumptions — sustained fee structures, a multi-trillion-dollar stablecoin market, and dominant market share. But Hayes’s message is clear: if the world saves in stablecoins, the speculation will happen on-chain, and Hyperliquid is already leading that charge.