While this trend often coincides with local Bitcoin highs, the market may be breaking the mold this time.

Short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs) have increased their holdings by roughly 450,000 BTC since July, bringing their total to around 2.6 million BTC, according to Glassnode. Defined as investors who purchased bitcoin within the last 155 days, these holders remain below previous peaks, signaling cautious market sentiment.

This marks the third distinct cycle of rising STH activity since early 2024—a trend that has historically coincided with local Bitcoin price tops. The first surge occurred in April 2024, following the March all-time high of $73,000. The second spike came in January 2025, alongside the $110,000 record high. The current uptick has followed the new peak of $126,000.

Each cycle shows a smaller cohort of STHs, suggesting speculative enthusiasm is gradually waning. As a share of total circulating supply, STH holdings have declined from 22% to 18%. Earlier in Q1 2025, STHs controlled as much as 2.8 million BTC, dropping to 2.1 million BTC as bitcoin fell to $76,000—underscoring their role in prior sell-offs.

Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) reduced positions over the summer, offloading roughly 250,000 BTC since July as bitcoin consolidated. LTHs now hold around 14.5 million BTC.

Looking forward, Bitcoin’s historically strong seasonal performance could push STH holdings above 3 million BTC, potentially setting a new cycle high and influencing near-term market dynamics.

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