While BTC celebrates a record-breaking rally, concerns are growing over quantum computing’s ability to challenge Bitcoin’s security model.

Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations could face existential challenges within the next decade, according to a new report by Capgemini. The firm warns that quantum computing is progressing rapidly and may soon be capable of breaking the encryption methods that secure everything from online banking systems to blockchain networks.

Bitcoin, like many digital systems, relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) to generate wallet addresses and verify ownership. But ECC — along with RSA — is susceptible to Shor’s algorithm, a quantum computing technique that can efficiently solve the mathematical problems these encryption schemes rely on. In Bitcoin’s case, this could expose private keys and potentially compromise funds on-chain.

While the report does not explicitly focus on Bitcoin, it highlights the broader risk to ECC and RSA — the very cryptographic protocols used in crypto wallets, digital signatures, and public-key infrastructures across most blockchains.

Capgemini’s findings are based on a survey of 1,000 large organizations across 13 countries. Roughly 70% said they are either preparing for or actively implementing post-quantum cryptography (PQC), a class of encryption algorithms designed to withstand attacks from quantum machines. Yet only 15% of respondents were labeled “quantum-safe champions,” and a mere 2% of global cybersecurity budgets are currently allocated to post-quantum readiness.

The report also highlighted the emerging threat of “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks — where adversaries collect encrypted data today, anticipating future quantum breakthroughs that could decrypt it. This poses a unique threat to blockchains with exposed public keys. In Bitcoin’s case, more than 25% of all BTC is in addresses where the public key is known and would be immediately vulnerable if a cryptographically capable quantum computer comes online.

In anticipation of such risks, Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp and other researchers recently proposed a phased strategy to protect legacy wallets. Their draft suggests freezing coins held in early pay-to-pubkey addresses, such as those belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto, and encouraging migration to quantum-resistant formats.

“This proposal is radically different from any in Bitcoin’s history — just as the threat posed by quantum computing is radically different from any other threat in Bitcoin’s history,” the authors wrote, according to CoinDesk.

The timeline for so-called “Q-Day” — when quantum computers can break modern encryption — remains uncertain. However, the Capgemini report notes that advancements in quantum error correction, hardware architecture, and algorithmic performance have accelerated in recent years. Some researchers believe a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) could arrive before 2030.

Governments are already responding. The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) intends to retire RSA and ECC protocols by 2035. Meanwhile, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has finalized several PQC algorithms, including Kyber and Dilithium, for public use.

Major tech firms like Cloudflare, Apple, and Amazon Web Services have begun incorporating these algorithms into their infrastructure. However, as of this week, no top 10 blockchain by market cap has adopted PQC measures.

For now, quantum threats remain theoretical, and Bitcoin’s security model holds. But the cryptographic assumptions that underpin the network may not be future-proof. As governments, enterprises, and developers brace for a potential quantum era, the long-term integrity of blockchain security is entering a critical phase of re-evaluation.

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