What Moves Are Sharp Bitcoin and Ethereum Investors Planning as Summer Nears?

With summer on the horizon, experienced traders in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are preparing for potential market turbulence, adopting cautious hedging strategies even as the broader crypto market remains largely upbeat.

Data from crypto derivatives exchange Deribit shows that traders are increasingly turning to the 25-delta risk reversal options strategy, signaling a tilt toward protective positioning. This strategy, which involves buying puts and selling calls (or vice versa), indicates whether traders expect upward or downward price swings.

Currently, the 25-delta risk reversals for BTC and ETH remain negative through June, July, and August, highlighting a preference for downside protection via put options. Ether’s put options, in particular, have become notably more expensive through late July, reflecting growing caution among traders.

Such hedging activity suggests traders are looking to safeguard their spot and futures holdings against the possibility of sudden market drops.

“Risk reversals in both BTC and ETH continue to lean bearish across the summer months, indicating that long holders are actively hedging spot exposure and anticipating potential pullbacks,” said Singapore-based QCP Capital in a market update.

Cautious sentiment is also apparent in over-the-counter markets. On trading platform Paradigm, the top five BTC trades last week included a significant put spread and a bearish risk reversal. For ETH, major trades included a long position in $2,450 puts alongside a short strangle—a volatility-focused strategy aiming to profit from price swings.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been consolidating above the $100,000 mark for over 40 days, according to CoinDesk data. However, profit-taking by long-term holders and ongoing selling by miners have kept prices largely range-bound, dampening the impact of continued inflows into spot BTC ETFs.

“Bitcoin has been trading sideways, suggesting its current levels may be too high for many retail investors. Open interest in BTC options has grown, and the 25-delta put-call skew on 30-day contracts has risen, signaling increased demand for short-term protective puts,” noted Coinbase Institutional in its weekly commentary.

Adding to traders’ caution, BTC closed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Friday for the first time since mid-April—a technical signal that could trigger additional selling and push prices below the psychological $100,000 threshold.

Still, not everyone sees an imminent downturn. Cas Abbé, a well-known market analyst, pointed out that Bitcoin’s on-balance volume remains strong, indicating continued underlying buying interest. Abbé forecasts BTC could rally to $130,000–$135,000 by the end of the third quarter.