What Could Stop Bitcoin From Reaching $120,000: 3 Key Risks

Three Risks That Could Stall Bitcoin’s Push Toward $120K

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to gain ground, following an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout earlier this week that sets the stage for a potential rally toward $120,000. Prices have climbed above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), while the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) hints at a bullish cross—signals that could attract momentum traders and further accelerate gains.

Despite these bullish indicators, at least three key factors could limit Bitcoin’s upside.

1. Nearing Bull Fatigue
BTC is approaching the bull fatigue zone above $115,000. Since July, rallies above this level have encountered strong selling pressure, as reflected in long upper wicks on the last two monthly candles. While bulls briefly pushed BTC above $124,000, price retraced below $115,000, highlighting a critical resistance area and potential hesitation among buyers.

2. Dollar May Have Priced in Fed Cuts
U.S. labor market weakness has led futures traders to price in 70 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end and 125 basis points by July 2026. However, the dollar index has remained relatively steady in the 97–98 range, down only slightly this week. This raises the risk that the dollar has already priced in expected rate cuts. If it rebounds, it could cap gains for dollar-denominated assets like BTC. Tight Bollinger Bands suggest a potential sharp move in the dollar, which could weigh on Bitcoin.

3. Long-Term Bullish Momentum in 10-Year Yields
Expectations of falling 10-year Treasury yields have fueled hopes of increased risk-taking in markets. Yet, long-term charts show a generational bullish trend in yields, suggesting limited downside. The 50-, 100-, and 200-month moving averages are aligned bullishly, a pattern last seen in the 1950s, historically signaling sustained higher yields. Stronger yields could make fixed-income assets more attractive, reducing the influx of capital into risk assets like Bitcoin.

Conclusion
While BTC shows bullish momentum above the 50-day SMA and supportive GMMA signals, traders should remain cautious. Resistance near $115K, a potentially resilient dollar, and structurally higher long-term yields could all temper Bitcoin’s push toward $120,000.