Week 38 Sees Bitcoin Decline, Ranking as Its Third-Poorest Week on Average

Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Weakness as Gold and AI Stocks Draw Focus

Crypto markets are cooling in the 38th week of 2025, a period historically challenging for bitcoin. Data from Coinglass shows Week 38 is typically the third-worst performing week of the year for BTC, averaging a return of -2.25%, trailing only Week 28 (-2.78%) and Week 14 (-3.91%).

This week, bitcoin has slipped nearly 2%, trading around $113,000. September’s monthly options expiry suggests a max pain level near $110,000, according to Deribit. Max pain represents the strike price at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless, effectively maximizing losses for option holders, hinting at potential further downside.

Market sentiment shows signs of cooling. Perpetual funding rates for bitcoin — the cost of holding leveraged positions in perpetual futures — have fallen to 4%, among the lowest levels in a month. A low positive funding rate typically indicates reduced demand for leveraged long positions and waning speculative enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, implied volatility (IV), a gauge of expected future price swings, remains near historic lows at 37, further reflecting subdued market expectations.

Despite the weekly pullback, bitcoin is still up 4% for September and 6% for the quarter. With roughly 14 weeks remaining in the year — historically positive for BTC — the market may be in a consolidation phase before potential volatility returns.

In contrast, gold continues its rally, climbing 1% on Tuesday and rising over 42% year-to-date, providing investors an alternative store of value and dampening some of bitcoin’s appeal.

Investor focus has also shifted to high-growth sectors, including artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks such as IREN, which may have temporarily drawn attention and capital away from crypto.

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