Even as bitcoin’s spot price begins to steady, market positioning suggests investors remain firmly on the defensive, with leverage declining and volatility cooling.
In its mid-March 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck report, VanEck highlighted a surge in demand for downside protection, noting that traders are paying record premiums for hedging against further declines.
The report shows bitcoin’s 30-day average price fell 19% from the previous period, while realized volatility dropped sharply from around 80 to just above 50. Futures funding rates also declined to 2.7% from 4.1%, signaling that leveraged speculation has eased.
Options markets paint a similarly cautious picture. The put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77 and climbed to 0.84—its highest level since June 2021, during the China Bitcoin mining crackdown.
Over the past month, traders spent approximately $685 million on put options, while call option premiums fell 12% to about $562 million. When measured against spot volumes, put premiums reached roughly 4 basis points—an all-time high in VanEck’s data.
According to the report, this level is about three times higher than those seen in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna collapse and the Ethereum staking liquidity crisis.
Despite the heightened caution, VanEck noted that such extreme bearish positioning has historically coincided with market turning points rather than continued declines. Over the past six years, similar spikes in options skew have been followed by average bitcoin gains of 13% over 90 days and 133% over 360 days.
The report also pointed out that on-chain activity remains muted, while miner selling pressure continues to be relatively limited.
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