Bitcoin’s Tight Trading Range Signals Imminent Breakout
Bitcoin (BTC) has been locked in one of its narrowest price ranges in years, hovering between $91,000 and $109,000 since late November. This prolonged stagnation has led to a sharp decline in volatility, suggesting that a major move may be just around the corner.
Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s two-week realized volatility has dropped to an annualized 32%, one of its lowest readings in years. Meanwhile, one-month implied volatility in the options market has also fallen below 50%, highlighting a lack of aggressive positioning from traders.
Adding to the picture, analyst Checkmate’s “Choppiness Index” indicates that Bitcoin’s current trading conditions are the most stagnant they’ve been since 2015. Historically, when BTC enters such prolonged consolidation periods, a major breakout tends to follow.
While it’s unclear whether the next move will be up or down, market cycles suggest that volatility always returns. With Bitcoin coiling tighter by the day, a decisive breakout from this range seems inevitable.
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