Two Factors Making This Bitcoin Bull Market More Robust Than Past Cycles in 2017 and 2020-21

Bitcoin (BTC), often criticized for its wild price swings, is displaying a notably calmer performance during the bull run that began in early 2023. This period is marked by reduced volatility and milder price pullbacks compared to earlier rallies.

Data Shows Significant Drop in Price Fluctuations

Glassnode’s data reveals that Bitcoin’s realized volatility—measuring actual past price changes—has averaged under 50% on a three-month rolling basis this cycle. This contrasts sharply with the 80%-100% volatility typical of previous bull markets.

Similarly, the Volmex BVIV index, which reflects implied volatility or anticipated future price swings, has been trending downward, signaling expectations of a steadier market.

The growing size of Bitcoin’s market cap, which now tops $2 trillion and ranks as the seventh-largest global asset, contributes to this stability. Larger market capitalization means more capital is needed to move prices significantly, leading to smoother price action.

Glassnode also credits the advent of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and clearer regulations for attracting institutional investors, further strengthening market foundations.

A Smoother Climb Compared to Past Runs

Looking back at the 2020-21 bull market, Bitcoin soared from $4,000 to nearly $70,000 but experienced sharp corrections exceeding 30% at times—levels considered bear markets in traditional finance.

The current rally, starting from about $30,000 and surpassing $100,000, follows a more gradual stair-step pattern. Price surges are followed by extended phases of accumulation, preparing for the next upward move.

Glassnode notes that drawdowns during this cycle have generally stayed below 25%, with only a few exceptions exceeding 30%.

This more stable trend is attributed to reduced speculative leverage. Previously, exchanges like Binance offered up to 100x leverage, which amplified volatility through forced liquidations. Now, with tighter leverage limits and more participation by long-term investors, Bitcoin’s price path is more resilient and sustainable.