Traders Flag 12% Monthly Drop in Bitcoin as Solana Outperforms Other Major Coins

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered September under familiar seasonal headwinds, with historical trends pointing to volatility. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has declined in nine of the last 14 Septembers, averaging roughly a 12% monthly loss.

This week, BTC opened near $110,000, its lowest level in nearly two months, while the total crypto market capitalization fell to $3.74 trillion, a three-week low. Over the past 24 hours, prices have remained relatively flat, with Solana (SOL) gaining 4%, XRP up 1%, and Cardano (ADA) rising 1.5%.

Traders highlight macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and thinning volumes as factors that leave little margin for error. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that Bitcoin’s failure to hold $112,000 could lead to further downside toward $105,000, a key support level before the psychological $100,000 barrier.

Investor caution is reflected in the crypto fear index, which has dropped to 40, its lowest since April. Historical patterns reinforce caution: September has seen drawdowns in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022, often coinciding with liquidity squeezes and macro jitters.

ETF flows underline these headwinds. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $440 million in net outflows last week, while Ether ETFs saw $1 billion in inflows, suggesting capital rotation rather than expansion. Spot ETFs now hold over 1.3 million BTC, nearly 6% of supply.

Market eyes the U.S. non-farm payrolls report Friday, with just 45,000 new jobs expected. A weak report could bolster the case for a September Fed rate cut, potentially reviving risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, options data show strong demand for puts, reflecting bearish positioning and caution among traders.