This Metric Suggests Trump Media and Semler Scientific Are the Cheapest Firms with Bitcoin on Their Balance Sheets

NYDIG Flags Flawed Metrics in Bitcoin Treasury Valuation: Look Beyond mNAV, Says Cipolaro

In a fresh note dated June 6, NYDIG’s Head of Research Greg Cipolaro is urging market participants to rethink how they value publicly traded companies with significant Bitcoin holdings. His message: modified net asset value (mNAV)—the go-to ratio for many—is too narrow to drive real investment decisions.

“mNAV is an overly simplistic shortcut that ignores balance sheet dynamics and investor behavior,” Cipolaro wrote.

mNAV ≠ Full Valuation Picture

mNAV calculates a firm’s market capitalization divided by the dollar value of its Bitcoin holdings. While popular on crypto Twitter and among retail analysts, it lacks context—omitting debt, cash, and operational metrics that can materially alter a company’s valuation.

Instead, Cipolaro emphasizes equity premium to NAV, which incorporates not just Bitcoin, but the broader asset and liability structure of the firm—effectively capturing how much of the stock’s valuation stems from market confidence in its BTC strategy.

“It’s this equity premium that allows these companies to act as Bitcoin capital formation machines,” he noted.

Unexpected Value Plays: DJT and SMLR

Among the eight firms NYDIG evaluated, two names stand out for trading at a discount to NAV:

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): −16% equity premium to NAV
Semler Scientific (SMLR): −10% equity premium to NAV

This implies that despite holding Bitcoin and trading above 1.1x mNAV, the market undervalues their net assets, making them potentially underpriced Bitcoin proxy trades.

In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) remains the gold standard in Bitcoin-treasury plays, still commanding a sizable equity premium, as reflected in its 5% share price rise on Monday amid a Bitcoin rally past $108,000.

Conclusion

As the corporate-Bitcoin narrative accelerates, Cipolaro argues that investors will need more comprehensive valuation frameworks. Those relying solely on mNAV risk missing mispriced opportunities—or overpaying for headline exposure.