This measure suggests Bitcoin hit its bottom in late November, setting the stage for a strong rally.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Ratio Points to Late-November Bottom and Upside Potential

Extreme readings in the short-term holder supply in profit vs. supply in loss ratio have historically marked the end of Bitcoin bear markets.

During Bitcoin’s (BTC) fall to nearly $80,000 in late November, the ratio dropped to 0.013. According to Glassnode, similar levels in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 corresponded to local or definitive market bottoms.

Short-term holders — investors who have held BTC for less than 155 days — saw their supply in profit fall to roughly 30,000 BTC, while supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest since the FTX collapse in 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.

Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin has risen to around $94,000, a gain of over 7%. Supply in loss has declined to 1.9 million BTC, while supply in profit rebounded to 850,000 BTC, bringing the ratio to approximately 0.45.

Historically, when this ratio approaches 1, it tends to continue climbing, signaling sustained upside. With the current ratio still below 0.5, there appears to be significant room for further gains. Market tops, in contrast, have generally emerged only when the ratio nears 100.

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