The cryptocurrency is approaching levels considered a favorable entry point, unseen in three years.

Bitcoin Approaches “Buy Zone,” but On-Chain Data Suggests Bottom Hasn’t Arrived

Bitcoin is trading near $67,500, prompting some to see it as a buying opportunity. Yet on-chain data suggests the conditions that historically signal true cycle lows haven’t fully materialized.

According to CryptoQuant, bitcoin’s realized price—the average cost basis of all coins weighted by their last transaction—is $54,286, while spot trades at $68,774. That leaves a premium of roughly $14,500, or 21% above realized. Historically, market bottoms coincided with spot falling below realized price. For example, during the 2022 bear market, bitcoin remained under its cost basis from June through October, with the lowest point—about 15% below realized—aligning almost exactly with the cycle low near $15,500. A similar pattern appeared during the early 2020 COVID crash, creating ideal accumulation zones as the entire network was underwater.

By contrast, today’s 21% premium indicates the average holder remains in profit. For bitcoin to reach realized price, it would need to drop roughly 20% to $54,000. What’s notable is how quickly the gap has narrowed: in late 2024, when bitcoin traded above $119,000, the premium to realized was around 120%. That’s compressed to 21% in just 15 months, one of the fastest approaches outside of outright crashes.

CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen described bitcoin as entering an “accumulation zone,” drawing parallels with the 2022 bottom. However, the comparison is premature. In 2022, the accumulation zone was defined by spot trading at or below realized price, while current prices remain well above that metric.

Other on-chain indicators reinforce the idea that the market hasn’t fully reset. The Coinbase Premium Index has returned to negative territory, suggesting weaker institutional demand on the exchange most closely tied to U.S. buyer flows.

This doesn’t rule out near-term rallies. Bitcoin has held the $65,000–$70,000 range through five weeks of heightened geopolitical tension, and ETF inflows of over $1 billion in March indicate active demand. Still, the market has yet to experience the kind of broad capitulation that historically signals a bottom, meaning the classic on-chain “buy zone” has not been confirmed.

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