The $300K Bitcoin Surge Draws More Traders In — When Is the Right Moment to Step Aside?

Bitcoin’s $300K Call Option Becomes Market Favorite as Traders Eye Big Rally — But Are Risks Rising?

The June expiry $300,000 bitcoin call option has surged in popularity, reflecting traders’ aggressive bets on a dramatic price increase, according to Lin Chen from Deribit.

Earlier this month, CoinDesk noted rising interest in this bullish play, which has now become the single most traded option for the June 27 expiration — likened to a “lottery ticket” for those expecting bitcoin to climb above $300,000 within weeks.

Data from Deribit shows that the notional open interest for the $300K call has climbed to over $600 million, a sharp increase from $484 million three weeks ago. Since one contract equals one bitcoin, this figure represents a massive volume of speculative bets.

Lin Chen, Deribit’s Asia Business Development Head, told CoinDesk, “The $300,000 strike call options for June have the highest open interest, indicating strong speculative positioning as traders bet on continued upside momentum.”

He added that record trading volumes and clustered options bets could lead to increased volatility ahead of the expiration date.

Deribit’s overall options market also hit historic highs recently, with a notional open interest of $42.5 billion and the new block RFQ system processing nearly $1 billion daily — a sign of growing activity and liquidity.

For clarity, a call option allows its buyer the right to purchase bitcoin at a set price before expiry, betting on price increases.

This $300K call implies bitcoin must nearly triple from current levels (~$110,000) within the next four weeks, a bold and ambitious wager.

Interestingly, market data reveals short-term call options are more expensive than longer-dated ones — a reversal of typical trends. Amberdata’s charts show positive “risk reversals,” signaling heightened demand for near-term bullish bets.

This heightened optimism comes amid anticipation of the Bitcoin Conference 2025 kicking off in Las Vegas, where traders expect potential bullish announcements.

Warning Signs for Speculators?

However, experts caution that this surge in demand for short-dated calls may indicate speculative excess, often seen near market peaks.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, highlighted that seven-day call options currently trade at a 10% premium compared to puts, signaling traders’ aggressive chase of upside over hedging downside.

He said, “Bitcoin’s skew — the volatility difference between puts and calls — is nearly -10%, meaning calls are priced for much higher volatility.”

“This kind of skew often appears at extremes of bullish sentiment, serving as a classic contrarian warning,” Thielen added.

In short, while the $300,000 call option frenzy showcases strong confidence in a bitcoin rally, it may also suggest heightened risk as traders pile into aggressive bets just weeks before the June quarter ends.