Tentative Trade Deal Between U.S. and China Seen as Catalyst for Bitcoin Gains, Exchange Reports

A potential U.S.–China trade breakthrough could pave the way for renewed Bitcoin (BTC) upside, according to crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, as market sentiment begins to recover from the mid-October downturn.

Traders are watching closely ahead of this week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, which could mark a turning point after weeks of escalating trade tensions. Earlier this month, Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1 in response to Beijing’s tighter controls over rare-earth exports, sparking volatility across global markets.

Trump has since expressed confidence that both sides will reach an agreement, raising expectations that a preliminary consensus could ease one of the major geopolitical headwinds weighing on risk assets.

Options data indicate a shift in positioning. According to Amberdata, the volatility premium of downside puts over calls in Deribit-listed BTC options has narrowed to just 2–3%, down from roughly 5% following the Oct. 10 crash triggered by tariff concerns. The move signals waning demand for protective hedges as traders anticipate calmer conditions.

Even so, flows have remained cautious since the sell-off, with traders leaning toward put longs, put spreads, and call overwriting strategies — suggesting continued defensive sentiment despite improving price action.

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $114,000, recovering part of its losses after plunging from $126,000 to near $105,000 earlier this month, according to CoinDesk data.

Deribit noted that if the Trump–Xi talks produce meaningful progress, renewed optimism could shift positioning back toward bullish exposure, potentially reigniting momentum across crypto markets.

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