Swiss Rates Turn Negative While U.S. Yields Climb — What’s the Impact on Bitcoin?

Swiss Yields Turn Negative Again as U.S. Rates Climb — A Bullish Signal for Bitcoin?

As President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war casts uncertainty over the global economy, an emerging divergence in bond yields may have important implications for Bitcoin (BTC).

The contrast lies in rising U.S. Treasury yields versus a return to negative yields on Swiss government bonds, a dynamic that could support the case for bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

According to Investing.com, Swiss government bonds with maturities up to five years are again offering negative yields, with the two-year yield sitting at -17.8 basis points. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury notes of similar duration yield over 4%, reflecting stark differences in market expectations across regions.

This divergence reveals how global bond markets are pricing in the economic fallout of the trade war. Countries with trade surpluses — like Switzerland, China, and much of Europe — may experience disinflation or outright deflation, pressuring their central banks to adopt more aggressive monetary easing. In contrast, deficit nations like the U.S. face rising inflation risk and increased borrowing costs.

Both the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank have already moved to lower rates in response to weakening economic signals — a monetary backdrop that has historically favored non-sovereign, inflation-hedging assets like bitcoin.

“The last time this happened — in late 2019 — it preceded global easing, repo market dysfunction, and eventually pandemic-era QE,” noted pseudonymous macro analyst EndGame Macro on X. “Now, it likely reflects a combination of deflation risk, eurozone fragility, and capital rotation into monetary sovereignty safe havens.”

Simultaneously, elevated U.S. yields combined with record federal debt levels could spur capital flight from dollar-denominated assets into alternatives. Bitcoin, often framed as a hedge against both inflation and central bank intervention, may benefit from this capital rotation.

Notably, the 2020–2021 bitcoin bull cycle, which saw BTC climb from $5,000 to over $60,000, coincided with a historic rise in negative-yielding sovereign debt — a macro condition now beginning to resurface.

As monetary policy paths diverge globally, bitcoin could once again find itself at the center of investor demand for decentralized, non-yield-dependent assets.