Study Finds Businesses Scooping Up BTC Supply 4x Faster Than Miners Create It

River: Businesses Absorbing Bitcoin Nearly Four Times Faster Than It’s Mined

Bitcoin supply dynamics are shifting sharply toward institutions, according to new research from River.

The U.S.-based bitcoin services company released a flow chart on Aug. 25 estimating that businesses now absorb around 1,755 BTC per day, compared with just 450 BTC mined daily after April 2024’s halving.

River’s definition of “businesses” spans both dedicated bitcoin treasury firms like Strategy and traditional companies holding BTC on their balance sheets. Using a mix of public filings, custodial tagging, and proprietary heuristics, the firm mapped the net inflows into these wallets.

By contrast, miner issuance has fallen to roughly 450 BTC per day, reflecting the reduced block subsidy of 3.125 BTC and an average of 144 blocks mined daily. That comparison forms the basis for River’s conclusion that corporate absorption is outpacing new supply nearly 4-to-1.

Other institutional categories also show strong inflows. Funds and ETFs take in about 1,430 BTC per day, while governments account for 39 BTC and other entities absorb about 411 BTC. Roughly 14 BTC are lost daily due to inaccessible wallets.

On the outflow side, individuals register a net –3,196 BTC per day. River stresses this does not necessarily signal retail selling, but rather coins moving from personal wallets into institutional or custodial accounts.

The firm cautions its figures are estimates, not exact counts, and that inflows may represent OTC deals, custody transfers, or treasury reallocations rather than outright spot buying. Still, the trend suggests tightening supply as more coins migrate to institutional hands.

River’s analysis stops short of a price forecast, but argues the data underscores a clear shift: institutions are increasingly dictating bitcoin’s ownership landscape.