Strategy’s Bitcoin Accumulation Shows Limited Impact on Price, Says TD Cowen

TD Cowen: Strategy’s Bitcoin Buys Aren’t Driving Market Prices

Strategy may be one of Bitcoin’s biggest corporate buyers, but its influence on BTC’s price remains negligible, according to a new research report from TD Cowen.

In the report released Monday, analysts pushed back against the popular belief that Strategy’s aggressive bitcoin accumulation is a major driver of the crypto’s price action. Instead, they found that the company’s activity, while substantial in dollar terms, has minimal statistical impact on BTC’s market movements.

Sizeable Purchases, Small Market Footprint

Strategy recently completed another at-the-market (ATM) equity raise, selling 1.8 million shares and netting $842 million. The funds were used to acquire 6,556 BTC, nudging its total bitcoin yield this quarter up to 12.1%. But TD Cowen’s data shows that Strategy’s buying only accounted for an average of 3.3% of weekly BTC trading volume over the past six months.

Even during the company’s most active periods, its influence was limited. In 8 of the past 27 weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all. And while it exceeded 20% of weekly volume during a handful of weeks, those were outliers that skewed the average.

“On a relative basis, these purchases barely register across the broader trading landscape,” the analysts said.

Weak Correlation With Price Action

TD Cowen also tested for a relationship between Strategy’s weekly bitcoin purchases and BTC price movements. The results showed low correlation: just 0.25 with weekly BTC closing prices and 0.28 with weekly price changes.

“These numbers point to no strong or consistent relationship between the two,” the report noted, challenging the notion that Strategy is acting as a price floor for bitcoin.

More Than Miners? Not the Full Story

Critics often argue that Strategy buys more BTC than is mined during certain weeks, suggesting it pushes up prices through supply pressure. But the data says otherwise. Over the last six months, total trading volume has surpassed mining output by a factor of nearly 20 — meaning new supply is dwarfed by existing liquidity.

“Whether Strategy is buying more than miners produce is largely irrelevant in such a deep market,” analysts wrote. “Buyers aren’t setting prices here — the market is.”

Focus on Shareholder Gains, Not Market Moves

While the company may not be moving the bitcoin market, its strategic approach has delivered for shareholders. Its latest purchases added about 5,281 BTC in value, bringing quarter-to-date gains close to $600 million.

Since 2023, Strategy has increased its BTC holdings by 306%, while its fully diluted share count has only risen 94% — a strong ratio for investors. With $1.53 billion in remaining ATM capacity and board support for further expansion, Strategy’s treasury play appears far from over.

“Even if BTC yield declines as prices rise, the firm’s dollar-value gains from its bitcoin operations remain highly attractive,” TD Cowen concluded.