Spot ETF Applications for XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin Viewed as Almost Certain to Clear SEC, According to Bloomberg

Approval odds are soaring for most spot crypto ETF filings awaiting review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with the exception of one notable outlier: SUI.

According to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the regulatory environment for crypto ETFs has taken a positive turn, with the SEC showing increased engagement in the approval process. This shift has prompted Bloomberg to raise the likelihood of approval to 90% or more for most spot crypto ETF applications — including those tied to XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Cardano.

“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart posted on X. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.”

The optimism follows a recent uptick in regulatory activity, including 19b-4 acknowledgments and S-1 amendment requests, which analysts interpret as signs the SEC is actively cooperating with issuers rather than obstructing progress.

However, the SUI ETF filing, submitted solely by Canary, stands apart. It has only a 60% estimated chance of approval, primarily due to the absence of regulated futures markets and unresolved regulatory questions.

Meanwhile, sentiment in crypto prediction markets echoes Bloomberg’s analysis. Polymarket traders are assigning a 98% probability that an XRP ETF is approved this year, a 91% chance for a Solana ETF, and a 71% likelihood for Dogecoin.

The growing consensus among analysts and traders suggests that the long-awaited expansion of U.S.-based spot crypto ETFs may be nearing reality — with SUI as the lone asset still facing significant uncertainty.