Six Key Charts Show Why Bitcoin’s Latest Push Over $100K Might Have Staying Power

Six Reasons Bitcoin’s Climb Past $100K Looks More Solid Than January’s Short-Lived Spike

Bitcoin (BTC): $110,950.66

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 milestone, but unlike the December-January rally that quickly fizzled, current conditions suggest this breakout may have real staying power.

From macro tailwinds to investor positioning and market structure, six key indicators suggest the market is in better shape now than it was just a few months ago.

1. Macro Environment Now Aligns with Risk-On Assets

Financial conditions are meaningfully looser than during the last surge. The Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to 99.60, down nearly 9% from January’s high above 109, signaling a weaker dollar backdrop that historically supports BTC.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.52% from 4.8%, lowering the hurdle for risk assets. Though the 30-year yield is back above 5%, that’s often bullish for store-of-value plays like bitcoin and gold.

2. Stablecoin Reserves at All-Time Highs

The combined market cap of USDT and USDC has reached $151 billion, up from around $139 billion in the December-January window. That’s a 9% increase in deployable capital—fuel that could rotate into BTC and other crypto assets.

3. ETF Demand Outpacing Futures Speculation

Flows into spot bitcoin ETFs have hit a record $42.7 billion, outpacing the $39.8 billion peak in January, per Farside Investors. That signals persistent institutional demand with a long-term view.

By contrast, CME bitcoin futures open interest sits at $17 billion, still below the speculative highs near $22.8 billion earlier this year—indicating a lower level of leveraged froth.

4. No Meme Mania in Sight

Retail-driven hype cycles often manifest in meme coin rallies. But today, DOGE and SHIB remain subdued, with their combined market cap well below January’s euphoric levels. This suggests a more grounded market tone.

5. Futures Funding Reflects Healthy Sentiment

Funding rates on BTC perpetual futures are mildly positive, indicating demand for leveraged long positions. But critically, they remain far below the overheated levels seen during the last top—pointing to optimism without excess risk.

6. Volatility Expectations Have Declined

Implied volatility, as measured by Deribit’s DVOL Index, is significantly lower than during previous peaks. The drop signals a calmer market environment and reduced expectations for sharp price swings—a sign that traders see this rally as more stable.

Bottom Line

Unlike the January surge, bitcoin’s current move above $100,000 is supported by a better macro setup, deeper capital reserves, and more disciplined investor behavior. With fewer signs of leverage and speculation, this run may be less about hype—and more about conviction.