Semler Scientific Could Triple from Here, Says Benchmark, Citing Bitcoin Holdings

Benchmark: Semler Scientific Undervalued, Bitcoin Strategy Offers Triple-Digit Upside

Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR) continues to trade just above the market value of its bitcoin holdings, with a market net asset value (mNAV) of 1.04 — a narrow premium that Benchmark views as a major mispricing.

In a note following the company’s Q2 earnings, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reaffirmed his Buy rating and $101 price target, nearly 3x the current share price around $35. According to Palmer, the market is overlooking Semler’s capacity to grow its bitcoin treasury using what he calls “intelligent leverage” without excessive shareholder dilution.

“Investors are assigning virtually no value to Semler’s strategic flexibility or its long-term bitcoin roadmap,” Palmer wrote.

Unlike many bitcoin treasury firms that rely heavily on equity issuance, Semler has adopted a measured approach. Director of Bitcoin Strategy Joe Burnett detailed a plan to increase BTC holdings through operating cash flows, low-interest convertible debt, and selective at-the-money (ATM) issuances — all aimed at maximizing shareholder value.

Currently, the company holds 5,021 BTC with a cost basis of $475.8 million and a market value of $586.2 million, reflecting a $110.4 million unrealized gain and a year-to-date BTC yield of 31.3%. Management has laid out ambitious targets of 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 BTC by 2026, and 105,000 BTC by 2027.

Semler also holds $100 million in 4.25% convertible notes due 2030, giving it headroom to issue additional long-duration bitcoin-backed debt if needed.

Benchmark’s valuation incorporates a sum-of-the-parts analysis, factoring in both Semler’s bitcoin holdings and its core healthcare operations, including the growing CardioVanta unit. Despite this dual-track growth strategy, the stock continues to trade with minimal premium to its bitcoin net asset value.

“As execution continues, we expect this valuation gap to close,” Palmer concluded.

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