Semler Scientific Could Jump Nearly 170% Following Strive Buyout, Says Benchmark

Semler Scientific Trades Well Below Strive Takeout Value Amid Bitcoin Treasury M&A Wave

Shares of Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $32.06 yesterday, far below the implied $86.30 takeout price in its all-stock acquisition by Strive (ASST). Analyst Mark Palmer of Benchmark described the wide arbitrage gap as both a sign of market caution and a potential opportunity amid the growing wave of bitcoin treasury mergers.

Palmer maintained a buy rating on Semler, lowering the price target to $86 from $101 to align with Strive’s acquisition terms. The deal’s fixed exchange ratio of 21.05 Strive shares per Semler share presents a potential arbitrage opportunity, particularly given both boards have approved the transaction.

The merger would combine Strive’s 5,886 BTC with Semler’s 5,021 BTC, totaling 10,907 bitcoins — enough to rank 12th among public companies by crypto holdings, trailing only Strategy, Benchmark noted.

In addition to the bitcoin reserves, the deal gives Strive access to Semler’s diagnostics business, which it plans to monetize or spin off post-merger. This cash-flowing asset may provide more flexibility than purely crypto-focused treasury plays.

Benchmark sees the transaction as the first in a potential wave of stock-for-stock bitcoin treasury consolidations. Using equity instead of debt, Strive is acquiring BTC at favorable prices while sidestepping traditional financing risks.

Risks remain, however. The transaction hinges on an effective S-4 registration and Semler shareholder approval. A sharp drop in Strive’s stock or bitcoin price before the vote could pressure deal terms. “If Strive’s share price weakens materially into the vote, the implied value to SMLR drops, potentially prompting renegotiation or widening the arbitrage haircut,” Benchmark warned.

Premarket, SMLR was up 2.5% at $32.86, while ASST fell 4.9% to $3.90.

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