SEC Approval Odds Skyrocket for XRP, SOL, DOGE Spot ETF Filings, Say Bloomberg Analysts

SEC Seen Likely to Approve Most Spot Crypto ETFs, Bloomberg Says, With SUI as the Outlier

21 June 2025

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears poised to approve most pending spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with only SUI facing notably lower odds, according to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas.

“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart shared on X, highlighting that increasing dialogue between the SEC and fund issuers is a strong sign of progress.

Bloomberg now sees approval odds of at least 90% for ETFs tied to assets such as Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano. The analysts attribute this optimism to a surge of 19b-4 acknowledgments and S-1 amendment activity from the SEC, which suggests regulators are engaging constructively rather than outright rejecting proposals.

However, SUI remains an exception. Filed solely by Canary, the SUI ETF is assigned only a 60% chance of approval due to the absence of regulated futures markets and broader regulatory uncertainty surrounding the token.

Meanwhile, optimism extends to crypto prediction markets. On Polymarket, bettors are pricing in a 98% chance of an XRP ETF approval this year, a 91% chance for Solana, and a 71% chance for Dogecoin.