Ripple’s XRP Faces Key Test at $3—Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?

XRP Holds Above $3 Despite Regulatory Pushback, Eyes Breakout on Volume Surge

Ripple’s XRP rose 5% on the day, trading between $2.83 and $3.11 as buyers shrugged off regulatory concerns stemming from renewed opposition to Ripple’s banking license application. A sharp spike in volume — surpassing 110 million XRP — included a single $33 million trade that briefly rattled the order books.

Despite the volatility, XRP closed at $3.04, holding above key psychological support at $3.00. The move came as the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), representing 42 major financial institutions, filed formal objections to Ripple’s license request, casting uncertainty over the regulatory timeline.

Key Metrics:

Price Range: $2.83–$3.11
Closing Price: $3.04
Intraday Swing: 9.8%
Institutional Flows: Net neutral — $2.1B in sales offset by $14M in leveraged longs
Forecasts: AI models project a move to $3.12 by month-end; TD Sequential indicates short-term reversal risk

Market Dynamics

XRP touched a session high of $3.11 before reversing on a 70M XRP volume burst. Support was tested and held at $2.97 during early Asia trading, bolstered by back-to-back 50M+ XRP transactions. Final-hour activity showed consolidation near $3.03 as traders absorbed a 2.1M XRP sell attempt.

Technical Picture

Price is consolidating in a tight $3.00–$3.02 range.
Repeated rejections at $3.09–$3.11 signal short-term exhaustion.
Volume exceeded daily averages in five separate hourly candles.
TD Sequential on the 3-day chart has completed a 9-count, often a topping signal.
A breakout above $3.05, supported by 50M+ hourly volume, could target the $3.12–$3.25 zone.

What Traders Are Watching:

Ripple’s response to BPI’s objection and any regulatory developments.
Continued accumulation in the $3.00–$3.02 range by larger holders.
Volume trends heading into the weekend — light activity could trigger a retest of $2.92–$2.97.
Confirmation of upside momentum above $3.05 on sustained buying pressure.

XRP’s ability to hold key levels in the face of regulatory noise and elevated volatility suggests underlying demand remains intact — but bulls still need volume to break higher.