Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks Loom—How Much Could Bitcoin Be Impacted?

Bitcoin Braces for Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks With Modest Volatility Expectations

As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell prepares to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday, Bitcoin traders are anticipating price movement — but not the kind of extreme swings often associated with major Fed events.

Options markets are signaling a relatively muted reaction, with crypto derivatives traders pricing in a ±2.0% move for Bitcoin around the speech. That’s according to Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at Orbit Markets, a firm specializing in crypto options and structured derivatives.

Traders derive these estimates from the implied volatility baked into option premiums, which reflect market expectations for price movement over a given timeframe. Volmex’s 1-day Bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV1D) jumped to 49% annualized — its highest level since May 26 — which corresponds to a projected 24-hour price swing of about 2.5%. For comparison, Bitcoin’s average daily move over the past 30 days has been just 1.18%.

It’s worth noting that volatility is direction-neutral — higher volatility simply signals bigger moves, not whether they’ll be up or down.

Still, some traders are leaning defensive, betting on potential downside if Powell’s tone comes off more balanced than dovish — a contrast to widespread expectations for hints at rate cuts. That’s reflected in skewed options pricing: “Overnight 25-delta risk reversals are currently six vols put over call,” Goyal said, highlighting a tilt toward downside protection.

In short, while expectations for a dramatic BTC reaction remain tempered, positioning in options markets suggests traders aren’t ruling out a disappointment — particularly if Powell dampens hopes for easing monetary policy.