Polymarket’s trading volume hits new highs with over $529 million staked on U.S.–Iran outcomes

A market centered on military action against a sovereign country has quickly become one of the most heavily traded contracts in the history of Polymarket — rivaling the platform’s largest U.S. election bets.

In the hours following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Polymarket effectively turned the unfolding conflict into a live, round-the-clock trading arena.

New contracts flooded the site almost immediately, allowing users to speculate on ceasefire deadlines, the durability of Iran’s ruling system and potential leadership succession. Traders aren’t just wagering on whether tensions escalate; they are assigning probabilities to the precise timing of an end to hostilities, whether U.S. troops will enter Iran by March 7, and who could succeed Ali Khamenei.

The largest resolved market so far — “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” — settled at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death. That single contract generated $45 million in volume, ranking among the week’s most actively traded geopolitical bets. The leading account, “Curseaaaaaaa,” reportedly earned around $757,000 on a “yes” position, with four other traders also clearing six-figure profits.

In the weeks leading up to the event, the contract’s implied odds fluctuated between 25% and 50% as tensions mounted. Upon confirmation, the probability spiked instantly to 100%.

The platform’s largest market, however, remains “US strikes Iran by…?”, which has been live since December 22. It has now accumulated $529 million in total trading volume, making it one of the biggest individual markets Polymarket has ever hosted. It stands as the top contract in both the “World” and “Geopolitics” categories and ranks fourth overall in “Politics,” trailing only major Trump-related markets from the 2024 election cycle.

The February 28 strike date alone attracted $89.6 million in trading. Every daily contract covering February 28 through early March ultimately resolved to “yes,” meaning traders who correctly anticipated the exact date of U.S. military action were paid out on a binary outcome. The resolution terms were narrowly defined, requiring U.S. drone, missile or airstrikes on Iranian territory, while excluding cyber operations, interceptions or ground maneuvers.

With the strikes now confirmed, trading activity has pivoted to what comes next.

The ceasefire market currently assigns just a 4% chance of a U.S.–Iran ceasefire by March 2 and 15% by March 6. Those odds climb to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30, suggesting that traders expect a resolution within weeks rather than months — a view that aligns with bitcoin’s rebound to $68,000.

Meanwhile, “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” is priced at 54%, a sharp rise from the low-20% range where it had traded for months. In the “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” contract, “position abolished” holds a 30% probability, implying that bettors see a meaningful chance the current theocratic structure does not survive. Among named candidates, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani leads with 21%.

Contracts tied to direct U.S. military involvement are also drawing liquidity. “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” trades at 19% with $207,000 in volume, while “US forces enter Iran by March 7” stands at 28% with roughly $2 million traded.

Polymarket’s structure allows it to function when traditional markets cannot. Equity and oil futures close for the weekend, but Polymarket remains active, enabling anyone with a crypto wallet to take real-time positions on geopolitical developments and see probabilities update instantly.

Some of the most notable trading appears to have occurred before the strikes were publicly known. Onchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six wallets that collectively generated $1.2 million in profit by betting on a U.S. strike by February 28 — the exact date the attacks occurred. Several wallets were funded within 24 hours of the operation, targeted the specific February 28 contract, and accumulated “yes” shares shortly before military action began. The largest wallet reportedly turned approximately $61,000 into more than $493,000, while another converted a $30,000 position into roughly $120,000 in gains.

In response to scrutiny, Polymarket added a note to its Middle East markets emphasizing that prediction markets aim to harness collective intelligence to provide accurate, unbiased forecasts on significant global events. The platform said that after speaking with individuals directly affected by the attacks, it believes prediction markets can deliver clarity in ways traditional television news and social media cannot.

It has also launched a dedicated hub for Iran-focused contracts, underscoring the scale of trading interest surrounding the conflict.

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