Polymarket traders are betting that the U.S. government will remain shut past October 15, yet they don’t expect the shutdown to surpass the record set during the first Trump administration in 2018–2019.
The market currently assigns a 72% probability that the government will reopen on or after October 15, with $1.4 million in trading volume within a $4 million contract covering that period.
Another contract, predicting the total shutdown duration, shows a 67% chance it will last 10–29 days, while the likelihood of it exceeding a month—enough to break the historical record—is only 27%.
Market observers suggest that the ongoing shutdown may have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent surge above $125,000.
Meanwhile, Congress remains deadlocked, with recent funding resolutions failing to reach the votes required to reopen the government.
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